Defenestrating Thoughts from the Bivouac

Apparently there’s a law that you can’t watch the Super Bowl in your house on a TV bigger than 55 inches. And there is also a ban on “mass out of home viewing” of the Super Bowl. My impression is that this will mean that almost every Super Bowl Party in the country will need to be cancelled and we’ll all need to watch TV in our homes with no outside social interaction.

Bah.

I fully support and understand the right of the NFL as the content creator to stipulate how their content is consumed. But in this case, they are broadcasting the game into everyone’s homes. It would be like if you are having a party in your backyard and your neighbor starts singing in his backyard and tells you that your guests need to leave, since he doesn’t want your guests to hear of him.

I know that legally the league can add these restrictions since the broadcast license is afforded by the FCC, blah, blah, blah. But really, it seems fair that if the league wants to control how people watch the game, they shouldn’t be shoving it into all of our homes over the air.

I thought I’d add a few more thoughts about The Long Tail. After all, it’s been almost 4 months since reading it, so I may as well take some time to discuss it thoroughly. :-)

The long tail is full of niche markets. For the most part, these markets always existed, but they stayed small as it was hard for them to find their customers. One of the presents I got for my birthday was a new dreamcatcher. I had left my old dreamcatcher at home while I was in college and its ownership was promptly taken over by my little sister. So I needed a new one.

I got my original one at Four Corners Park more than 15 years ago. Crissy was able buy the new one by searching for online stores using Google and then completing the transaction online. This shows how the supply/demand bottleneck for niche goods has decreased tremendously. Fifteen years ago, you would have to drive to Navajo country to find an authentic dreamcatcher, now just a few clicks from your desk and it gets delivered to your door.

Obviously we have a lot more choices nowadays; previously, the only things you could buy easily were mass market. Now, as a result of the shift, a product can be successful without being a hit that is stocked in all the retail stores. For example, not everyone wants a dreamcatcher, but there’s enough of an aggregate demand to support a number of small businesses.

One of the keys here is how much easier it is to match a buyer with a retailer. Before choices where pre-filtered by store, now choices are post-filtered by user ratings and features like “people who liked this also bought these”. Helping a a customer find a product has always been profitable. For a time, the TV Guide was more profitable than the actual networks. Now the key is focusing on an individual consumer and helping him find a particular product that is well suited for him.

Despite all this, the idea of “hits” and “mass market” product won’t go away. People are gregarious by nature and want to be part of a crowd. I’m convinced that American Idol’s success is more about people wanting to be able to talk about it with their friends and enjoying their ability to affect the outcome, rather than the actual technical merits of the show.