Defenestrating Thoughts from the Bivouac

While discussing the primaries, I mentioned that it’s unlikely that things will be decided before the national conventions and it’s likely we’ll have brokered conventions for both parties.

On the Democratic side, unless something big happens, I expect to see Obama and Hillary both stay around 50% through the primary season. When a very divided party meets at the convention, they will need to compromise. Neither Hillary or Obama will want to be VP for the other. So what will the party do? They will bring in the one person that unite the whole party, energize the base, and bring back all the people that have been disenfranchised with the party: Al Gore.

Gore keeps saying he’s not interested, but with the Republican party falling apart and a strong 3rd party offering, he can win easily (more discussion below). I’m not sure who he would take as a VP though. Probably a moderate governor who until then had been out of the spotlight.

On the Republican side, I was pretty sure we would see a brokered convention a couple days ago. And with Mitt Romney “suspending” his campaign, I’m actually more convinced that this will happen. I think this is a really smart play for Mitt. If McCain does “wrap” things up and the party picks him, Romney sets himself up as a clear VP choice. He is in 2nd place so far and was willing to put aside his ambitions for “the good of the party”. Plus, McCain is likely a one term president. So Romney, in this case, is the clear nominee in 2012.

On the other hand, if we go to a brokered convention because the Republican base won’t accept McCain, Romney is in position to be a compromise candidate.

Mostly likely, Ron Paul will form a new party or coalition and run as a 3rd party with a slate of Congressional candidates aligned with him. If McCain is the Republican candidate, look for the all fiscal conservatives to vote for Paul or stay home. As the economy goes further into recession, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Perot type numbers for Paul.

If Gore is the Democratic candidate, billionaire Bloomberg is unlikely to run as a 3rd party. It would be hard to pull the big government vote from Gore. If somehow Obama or Hillary gets the nomination, expect to see Bloomberg run and pull around 5 to 10% of the vote.

A four way race could be cool: McCain or Romney for the Republicans, Hillary or Obama for the Democrats, Bloomberg as the big government candidate, and Paul as the fiscal conservative. Add the recession and it could actually be a very good thing for America.

The two party system has polarized the country into a simple black and white world where thoughtful and thorough analysis is a liability. Having the major parties vulnerable on both flanks from legitimate candidates could shake up American politics for decades to come.

How sure am I about this? As I think about it, I’m getting more convinced that Gore will be appointed if the Hillary / Obama deadlock continues to the convention.

And I’m confident that Ron Paul will create a coalition of independents with the endorsement of a few 3rd parties, and a small slate of congressional candidates. Given the trouble the economy is in, I can see Paul carrying 10% of the popular vote.

Are all elections this interesting? Or is it just due to the unprecedented access to news and opinion due the Internet and the chatterbox?

Update: I just realized that I may have used the wrong terminology. On the Republican side, I don’t expect a “brokered convention”, rather I expect that enough “McCain” delegates will not support him on the first ballot, so he won’t win that first round. Then it’s completely wide open. I’m not sure what that situation is called.