Spinning secession stats

Recently there has been some buzz about state rights and whether states should secede from the union. Regardless of your thoughts on state rights and secession, I found the reporting of the issue to be fascinating.

Most of the news articles and commentary I read were pretty dismissive of the topic; here are some quotes from the first result that came up on a Google News search:

State wide, just 27 percent think Georgia would be better off independent of the U.S. and a mere 18 percent would approve of secession.

In Texas … a Rasmussen poll found just 18 percent of his constituents would vote to secede from the United States were such a ballot ever put forward. (Source)

The words “just” and “mere” are interestingly placed here. Sure, 27% and 18% aren’t big numbers. But secession would be an extremely impactful event; it’s not insignificant like a poll on if you think there will be a new M&M color this year.

The “just 27%” is more than one in four. So one in four people in Georgia think that their state would be better off if is wasn’t part of the United States. That’s a big deal, that’s not “just” some “mere” sentiment; that’s a lot of people.

Likewise in Texas, “just 18%” is one in five people who want their state to leave the union. Those aren’t small numbers.

It’s amazing how much the framing of discourse affects the interpretation. What if the same article had said: “A shockingly high 1 in 4 people believe their state would be better off if it left the United States.” That reads completely different, even though it cites the same data.

Of course, it’s hard to present data and information without any bias, but it would be nice if people just tried a little.

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