Defenestrating Thoughts from the Bivouac

In the past we’ve discussed a number of non-traditional economic indicators:

• The relative density of new cars at dealerships
• The fullness of the Whole Foods parking lot vs the Walmart parking lot
• The total number of Priuses in the Walmart parking lot
• The amount of Whole Foods coupons in circulation
• The amount of men who can no longer afford their trophy wives
• The tough times for girlfriends of investment bankers

A new indicator I’ve been watching is the “restaurant deals” indicator. We all know about Chili’s and Applebee’s “2 for $20″ deals, where you get an appetizer, 2 entrees, and a dessert for $20. And, of course, there’s PF Changs’ 4-course dinner for two for $39.95.

But the one that surprised me was my local Melting Pot’s deal: a four course meal for two for $55. It’s normally $72, which is a discount of 25%!

While good restaurant deals are fun, a number of people pointed me to my new favorite economic indicator: the “Hot Waitress” indicator:

The hotter the waitresses, the weaker the economy. In flush times, there is a robust market for hotness. Selling everything from condos to premium vodka is enhanced by proximity to pretty young people (of both sexes) who get paid for providing this service. That leaves more-punishing work, like waiting tables, to those with less striking genetic gifts. (Source)

So the better looking your waitress (or waiter), the worse the economy. And sometime in the future, when your modelesque waitress is replaced by a fat bald guy, don’t feel bad. It means the recession is over!

Best of all, knowledge of this indicator gives you something to say when your wife says, “Were you looking at her?!??”

You’ll be fine if you just reply, “I’m just collecting another data point for my market analysis. Looks like we should short the general index and move some more money into our high dividend international infrastructure holdings*.”

(* Note: this doesn’t actually work. It usually just makes things worse.)